WTA Market Update: June 19th, 2025

If you’ve spent any length of time this week doomscrolling on X, formerly Twitter, you would have learned that a decent-sized portion of the country does not support US involvement in the Israel-Iran war.  For “Neither Side Eats Bacon.”  It was trending on X, and for those who shared the post (which MUST have had its origins in the Carolinas), it supported the conclusion that “This is not my war,” which was the caption under the post’s picture of actor Sean Bean donning his sunglasses while in full Ned Stark, Game of Thrones attire. Others on social media, more in favor of taking it to Iran while we have the chance are trying to revive the oldie, “Bomb Bomb Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran” to the tune of The Beach Boys “Barbara Ann”. Clearly, we are a very advanced, intellectual, high-brow society that can engage in deep critical-thinking and wise discourse with the fate of several nations to be decided. Maybe we’re better off with AI taking over after all?

 

There are news reports that the top Iranian general was killed by Israel, who then took out his successor as well, all in a week. I imagine a cartoon version of a hangar full of Iranian officers with the Ayatollah waving his hands and booming loudly “Who will now lead our armies to victory?” with every single Iranian officer but one stepping backwards simultaneously, leaving a shaking, sweaty Iranian colonel who gulps when he realizes he’s just received a final promotion.

 

Spending time trying to determine what will happen going forward with the stock market due to the war confronts you with a very humbling, but honest realization that there are just too many variables in play to say you know for sure what’s coming next.  One might think that oil market analysts might know best in this Middle East situation, as they have their fingers on the pulse of the price of oil, on which official our official CPI and inflation numbers depend.  But John Evans, an analyst with oil broker PVM, provided a glimpse behind the scenes of the well-paid analysts, when he admitted there is a “fraternal, your guess is as good as mine” element in future oil price “divination”¹.

 

A sidebar story of Israel’s war on Iran is that a group of pro-Israeli hackers have successfully attacked an Iranian crypto exchange and obliterated $90 million in value by sending the crypto to addresses the owners could not access, thereby destroying it². While this could be seen as a small, positive development in the war against Iran, this should be a lesson for those who own crypto on exchanges or who transact frequently on them. If hackers can do this to the Iranian target account holders, they can do it to you. It’s a matter of time. And it’s WTA’s Reason #8,422 to invest in something besides cryptocurrency.

 

In news that used to matter, the Federal Reserve met today and determined that rates would stay unchanged because of the fear that tariffs will take inflation to a higher level.  On the other hand, they see this year’s GDP growth weaking from 1.7% in their March outlook to 1.4%³. So, the Fed is touting data on both sides of the equation as another reason for inaction.  Overall, the Fed said they still saw 2 rate cuts on the horizon in 2025. Elsewhere, unemployment among recent college graduates is 6.6%, far higher than the 4.2% national rate. It’s hard to know if that’s the impact of AI on entry-level job openings or that generation’s insistence on taking a “gap year” after college. (This is where we all try not to snicker at our young friends who are just looking to travel).

 

This week in bogus inflation data we have an update that was posted on X. The average US family health insurance premium was $6,000 in the year 2000⁴. In 2024 it was $26,000, good for a 342% increase since 1999 or 6.1% per year. Meanwhile, straight from our friends in the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 18% over the last 5 years according to the US Health Insurance Price Index. This second number goes straight into CPI data. If I had my tin foil hat on, I might say that the US doesn’t want to pay any more out in Social Security benefits than they can get away with, or more out in interest on the national debt. But I only wear my tin foil hat in the winter. In the summer it attracts too much heat.

 

If you’re worried about the impact of foreign wars on your accounts, I would say you are likely wasting your efforts.  “Worry is payment on a debt that you will never incur” was an aphorism once shared with me in college when I had procrastinated and left too much studying to do before my Fall-term exams. It applies now to the Israel-Iran War and your investments. If you examine our portfolios, you’ll see that over 90% of the allocation in nearly all of our portfolios is invested in North America. Domestic investing will remain strong, though admittedly, this year is a bit of an aberration to that 15-plus-year trend.  We are not looking under rocks for great Israeli companies and we are not trying to find Alpha in mosquito-or-venomous-snake-infested parts of the world. You’ll know some if not most of the companies you invest in. That’s the way we’re going to keep it here for you. We invest in what we know or have access to great research for, and we’re not trying to reinvent the wheel. We stick to our processes and won’t reach for fly-by-night foreign company stocks. If the stocks go down temporarily because of the war, it’s all right, as those stocks should be held within your Growth Bucket with a time frame of 5 years or more. If you feel your situation has changed, then by all means, let us know.

 

Here’s the reality. If there was a high percentage chance of World War 3, the S&P 500 wouldn’t be 2% from a new all-time high⁵. The so-called “smart” or really as it should be known “more-connected” money would likely have already been pulled out of the markets. Again, worry is payment on a debt that you’ll never incur. That’s a saying I’ve always appreciated hearing, so now I’m sharing it with you.  So, hold fast to your investments but call us if you want to discuss it anyway. If you listen to us, we’ll change your financial world …

 

Sincerely,

Scott Wright

The WTA Investment Committee

 

Sources:

¹https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/oil-prices-analysts-scratching-their-heads-over-isreal-iran-conflict.html

²https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/pro-israel-hackers-iran-crypto.html

³https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-dot-plot-reveals-more-divided-central-bank-but-still-points-to-two-rate-cuts-in-2025-181721811.html

⁴@charliebilello

⁵@KobeissiLetter